Corona Virus???

Well on the upside, looks like I have a couple of weeks off. They closed down all non-essential businesses here as of 11:59 last night. While we are an essential business we thought it best to cut down on the staff in the office during the next two weeks. So that left us with two Service personnel and the company owner still working in case our services are needed.

My wife works at a grocery store and while there was some initial panic buying on the toilet paper and bread a couple of weeks ago things she said are for the most part normal for them, though shelves are a bit emptier than they usually are. They still have a good supply of the usual food things though. Best part is, I don't have to go do the shopping! The down side to that at first was sending mini shopping lists every day she works by text messaging. Was taking considerable time to type all that in, until I learned the phone had voice recognition and I could simply dictate the list! I'm learning some interesting things about my cell phone and how to use it. :)

Now, what to do for two weeks! OMG I might even be able to go down to the workshop and actually work on one of several models I've started over the past couple of years. I've got the General Hunter, the bomb vessel cross section proto-typ (that Dave picked up on here after I had to put it on the shelf) and a chinese junk I started building for my brother a few years back.

I have the little admiral at home with me as well, as school is closed for March break (and we're told even longer as they don't plan on opening the schools again after that is over). The first thing on the agenda though, at her request, is to make bread. That's one of the many things we enjoy doing together. It will be a surprise for when her mom gets home tonight after work!
 
I just saw the figures of new confirmed corona cases in the USA, and I was shocked about the facts. Seems that there are appr. 18.000 new cases in the last 24 hours.
In the meantime there are more cases in the USA than in China or Italy.
aab.JPG

This is a graphic chart showing the progress of the time period of the duplication figures, and the USA is far higher than all other countries worldwide. (USA with the green arrow)
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unfortunately only in german language available

translation header:
Covid-19 cases in selected states. Time series begin on the day the hundredth case was reported. Auxiliary lines show constant doubling times, starting from 100 cases. Data as of 26.3. (Ö) and 25.3.2020, Austria data are supplemented daily with the number of cases reported after 3 p.m.
States in red tones have doubled times of two to three days in the period shown, states in shades of blue have achieved longer doubling times.

The terrible reality:
These known figures are showing more or less the infection 7 to 10 days ago, so the figures will rise tremendously during the next days, because these infections already happened in this time period......

In all countries we should stay at home, reduce the contacts as much as possible and stay healthy

Especially in the States you should be very very careful, otherwise this will be an extreme situation, especially in regions where the hospitals have not enough in oxygen resuscitation apparatus in intensive care. This happened in Italy, this happened in Spain, we will see in other countries of Europe how this works and how good they are prepared.
 
In Australia they are trialing an old tuberculosis vaccine. Some medical experts think it may help. This vaccine was given to many people years ago.
 
Can't stay indoors here in UK. Practically out of food this morning. Ordering online impossible Not exactly, because we ordered online a few days ago, but they say we will get it on the 6th May! Queue about 300 feet long at one supermarket. Got in a small one for a bit of bread, bag of brussel sprouts and two litres of milk. Maybe survive for another three days on that!
 
cases are getting more and more here so wife and I are not leaving the house.
yup it is getting really serious not only the virus but grocery stores are getting empty, also two grocery chains have found the virus in the store.
 
In Italy they are trying with drugs for rheumatoid arthritis and with plasma containing antibodies of healed people.
Unfortunately people continue to die, there are also many people healed.
The only thing we can do is stay indoors.
Absolutely stay indoors.
The few times I've been out I've encountered very poor prep and provision at GP's, chemists, Post Offices and supermarkets. Not be long before Law and Order goes out the window.
Folk are going to be faced with the horror of their empty lives.
The government has had to reveal their money tree at last.
How disgusting are their failed efforts to try and keep people off benefits? Now revealed to be (what we always knew) criminally inadequate. Even the homeless can have free hotel accommodation now.
Our PM had been insisting that true immunity is gained by thorough hand washing. Now he has it! If this wasn't happening for real, you wouldn't believe it.
And we're told the worst is yet to come. Credulity has become a scarce commodity.
At least it keeps the Jehova's Witnesses away.
 
This was yesterday
I just saw the figures of new confirmed corona cases in the USA, and I was shocked about the facts. Seems that there are appr. 18.000 new cases in the last 24 hours.
In the meantime there are more cases in the USA than in China or Italy.
View attachment 140149
aab.JPG

and this is 24 hours later
aac.JPG

For the USA: 40 tsd positive tests in 24 hours, every 2,5 days the figures are double - if there is not fast a change in the rising numbers (not to be expected) the States will have in 2 days 200 tsd and in 3 days more 400 tsd and next Sunday 800 tsd. And this are the confirmed cases - nobody knows the dark figures of already infected and not tested

BTW: 100.000 additional ventilation beds in 100 days - calculate by yourself how much cases you have in 100 days from now on.

2 days - 200
5 days - 400
8 days - 800
11 days - 1,6
14 days - 3,2
17 days - 6,4
20 days - 12,8
23 days - 25,6
27 days - 51,2
30 days - 102,4
33 days - 204,8 billion cases

So it is necessary to rise the duplication rate, from now 2,5 days to 3 days to 4 days and so on

Most important is to reduce the social contacts - protect yourself and stay at home - keep distance to other people, no visits of friends and relatives, if it is not really necessary - stay in the workshop - and stay in our forum, but do not go out
 
New York state was declared the City of Emergency a few weeks back. Today, the City of New York closed the borders with all their neighbors...Most cases in New York City (Manhattan).

Courtesy of Intelligencer:

Thousands of new COVID-19 infections are now being reported in New York every day. As of Saturday afternoon, there have been at least 52,318 confirmed cases of the coronavirus discovered in the state, including nearly 30,000 in New York City. At least 728 people with COVID-19 have died in the state, which has the largest number — around 46 percent — of confirmed cases in the U.S.

Nationwide, more than 113,000 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed across all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and three U.S. territories. At least 1,895 people have died from the virus in the country. COVID-19 has killed more than 28,000 worldwide.

As more widespread testing is done, the full scope and scale of the New York (and national) outbreak become more clear, including how much the virus continues to spread. Below is what we know about the reported cases and consequences in New York thus far.

As of Saturday afternoon, health officials have confirmed at least:

  • 52,318 total cases in New York State
  • 728 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
  • Over 29,777 cases in New York City, including 517 deaths
  • 8,825 cases in New Jersey, with 108 deaths
  • 1,291 cases in Connecticut, with 27 deaths
But we do have food, and most important - toilet paper. Amazon Prime served food on-time without delay (next day delivery).
 
Be careful with the John Hopkins database just the same. Although it is supposed to be the best authority available, yesterday it erroneously showed 70 new deaths in Queensland when it should have been one new death and 70 new infections. It also showed a total 400+ deaths for Australia so far when it should have been 14. It has been corrected overnight but you need to be careful and double check the data.
I lost all credibility within my gated community when I broadcast the erroneous data last night. But at least I might have scared a few more people to self-isolate.
 
We are getting the hang of this isolation thing. It's very quiet here. We are lucky that we live in a rural location. I take the dog out alternate days and ensure I do not see anyone or touch gates etc without gloves and have a jolly good scrub when I get back. (It is allowed here - dog walking I mean lol). It is spooky but quite nice as I am antisocial anyway. For the most part we are adjusting quite well although there are always some idiots. We have a very clean kitchen now too.
I did see one thing on the news last night from Russia. Moscow has a sort of close down and is sort of social distancing but it's all very half hearted. Anyway, they showed some quite streets and then went to a local church where hundreds were crammed in. Lovely singing. Then the film crew interviewed two middle aged and very cheerful ladies heading for the mass. Asked if they weren't scared one replied in all seriousness that the virus could not spread in such a religious place ...... her occupation? A doctor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
To give some perspective:- UK.GOV published figures, Annual mortality directly attributed to (ordinary) flu.
2014/15 28.3k
2015/16 11.8k
2016/17 18k
2017/18 26.4k (Last full year figures)
I was shocked at these figures. So why no big hoo-ha back then? I'm probably wrong, but there's a strong smell of bad fish in the air.
What are the same annual figures in the USA?
 
The "normal" flu is spread over a time period of several months, maybe 6 or 8 months in one season.
The corona infections are like a Tsunami and you have much much more very sick people in a much shorter time period, so that the hospitals can not take them all as patients.
The doctors will have to decide - this patient will get next a free emergency bed - and this one and this one not -> sorry but you have to die.
 
The "normal" flu is spread over a time period of several months, maybe 6 or 8 months in one season.
The corona infections are like a Tsunami and you have much much more very sick people in a much shorter time period, so that the hospitals can not take them all as patients.
The doctors will have to decide - this patient will get next a free emergency bed - and this one and this one not -> sorry but you have to die.
Uwek, I agree. If you look up the normal flu monthly incidence rate graphs (UK) you will see the marked peak is during the December to February period and rapidly falls away during March.
I was simply trying to illustrate the disparity in figures between the present Covid figures and the 'historical flue' figures for a similar period. These (sadly) represent the actual death rates. I would urge everyone to observe the current official advice wherever they are. It would be foolish not to. I wasn't suggesting otherwise.
The "normal" flu is spread over a time period of several months, maybe 6 or 8 months in one season.
The corona infections are like a Tsunami and you have much much more very sick people in a much shorter time period, so that the hospitals can not take them all as patients.
The doctors will have to decide - this patient will get next a free emergency bed - and this one and this one not -> sorry but you have to die.
 
appr. Two weeks ago: "we have no real problem with the "flu"
appr. two days ago: "after eastern we go back to normal business"
and yesterday: "if the number of deaths will be between 100.000 and 200.000 in the USA -> we made a good job!"
Strange.....
 
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